Consensus Outlook
Federal employees on furlough began to drive up initial jobless claims in the January 5 week and may very well to an increasing degree in the coming weeks as well. Still, claims have been very low and forecasters see only a limited increase in the January 12 week, at a consensus 221,000 vs what was a lower-than-expected 216,000 in the prior week.
Relative Performance Index
Econoday's RPI provides a handy summary measure of how an economy has recently been evolving relative to market expectations.
A reading above zero means that the economy in general has been performing more strongly than expected and vice versa for a reading below zero. The closer is the value to the maximum (+100) or minimum (-100) levels, the greater is the degree to which markets have been under- or over-estimating economic activity.
A zero outturn would imply that, on average, the market consensus has been correct. Note too that the index is sensitized to place extra weight upon those indicators that investors consider to be the most important.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care