Consensus Outlook
Orders and shipments contracted suddenly and sharply in December for the Richmond Fed manufacturing report where the index for January is expected to come in at minus 3. The index in December came in far below expectations at minus 8.
Relative Performance Index
Econoday's RPI provides a handy summary measure of how an economy has recently been evolving relative to market expectations.
A reading above zero means that the economy in general has been performing more strongly than expected and vice versa for a reading below zero. The closer is the value to the maximum (+100) or minimum (-100) levels, the greater is the degree to which markets have been under- or over-estimating economic activity.
A zero outturn would imply that, on average, the market consensus has been correct. Note too that the index is sensitized to place extra weight upon those indicators that investors consider to be the most important.
Definition
This survey tracks business conditions in the Richmond Fed's manufacturing sector. The headline index is a composite of the new orders, shipments, and employment indexes. Why Investors Care