Consensus Outlook
Fractional headline growth is expected for retail sales in December, at a 0.1 percent gain vs only a 0.2 percent November increase. No change is expected for ex-auto sales. Unit vehicle sales were steady in December and gasoline prices were soft which should boost the strength of the ex-auto ex-gasoline reading where the consensus increase is 0.4 percent and very near November's 0.5 percent gain. November at 0.9 percent and October at 0.7 percent were unusually strong months for the control group and less but still solid strength is the expectation for December, at a consensus 0.4 percent gain.
Relative Performance Index
Econoday's RPI provides a handy summary measure of how an economy has recently been evolving relative to market expectations.
A reading above zero means that the economy in general has been performing more strongly than expected and vice versa for a reading below zero. The closer is the value to the maximum (+100) or minimum (-100) levels, the greater is the degree to which markets have been under- or over-estimating economic activity.
A zero outturn would imply that, on average, the market consensus has been correct. Note too that the index is sensitized to place extra weight upon those indicators that investors consider to be the most important.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. Of special attention is the control group; this is an input into the consumer spending component of GDP and excludes food services, autos, gasoline and building materials. Why Investors Care