Consensus Outlook
Extending strength is the expectation for December durable goods orders where the consensus is calling for a 1.0 percent gain vs November's increase of 0.8 percent. Ex-transportation orders, however, have been soft and are expected to improve only slightly, to a 0.2 percent increase vs a 0.3 percent decline in November. Core capital goods orders have been mixed, falling sharply in November after rising strongly in October. Here the consensus is very soft, for no change.
Relative Performance Index
Econoday's RPI provides a handy summary measure of how an economy has recently been evolving relative to market expectations.
A reading above zero means that the economy in general has been performing more strongly than expected and vice versa for a reading below zero. The closer is the value to the maximum (+100) or minimum (-100) levels, the greater is the degree to which markets have been under- or over-estimating economic activity.
A zero outturn would imply that, on average, the market consensus has been correct. Note too that the index is sensitized to place extra weight upon those indicators that investors consider to be the most important.
Definition
Durable goods orders are new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory hard goods. The report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. The advance release provides early estimates and is revised about a week later by the factory orders report. Why Investors Care