2018 Economic Calendar
2024 Econoday Investor's Journal Order Now
POWERED BY  econoday logo
U.S. & Intl Recaps   |   Event Definitions   |   Central Banks   |   Today's Calendar

ISM Manufacturing Index  
Released On 12/3/2018 10:00:00 AM For Nov, 2018
 PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Index57.7 57.2 56.0  to 58.3 59.3 
US 6-Mo ChartGlobal Current
performance relative to consensus

Consensus Outlook
Steady strength is what Econoday's forecasters see for the November ISM manufacturing index where the consensus is 57.2 vs 57.7 in October, a month that, despite mostly strong readings throughout, missed low estimates and broke a long 60-plus string for new orders.

Relative Performance Index

Econoday's RPI provides a handy summary measure of how an economy has recently been evolving relative to market expectations.
A reading above zero means that the economy in general has been performing more strongly than expected and vice versa for a reading below zero. The closer is the value to the maximum (+100) or minimum (-100) levels, the greater is the degree to which markets have been under- or over-estimating economic activity. A zero outturn would imply that, on average, the market consensus has been correct. Note too that the index is sensitized to place extra weight upon those indicators that investors consider to be the most important.

 

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute for Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction (tracked in volumes) of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, and imports. Data on changes in input prices (prices paid) are also tracked. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses. Why Investors Care

[locked]