2018 Economic Calendar
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Retail Sales  
Released On 12/14/2018 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2018
 PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Retail Sales - M/M0.8 %1.1 %0.1 %-0.2 % to 0.4 %0.2 %
Ex-Vehicles - M/M0.7 %1.0 %0.2 %-0.2 % to 0.9 %0.2 %
Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M0.3 %0.7 %0.4 %0.1 % to 0.6 %0.5 %
Control Group – M/M0.3 %0.7 %0.4 %0.1 % to 0.5 %0.9 %
US 6-Mo ChartGlobal Current
performance relative to consensus

Consensus Outlook
October, at a 0.8 percent gain, proved stronger than expected and moderation, due to soft auto sales and falling gasoline prices, is the expectation for November retail sales where Econoday's consensus is calling for only a 0.1 percent increase. Details in October's report were not as strong as the headline particularly control group sales which rose a solid 0.3 percent with a 0.4 percent gain the call for November. Excluding autos, a gain of 0.2 percent is the consensus for November with a 0.4 percent increase seen for ex-auto ex-gas sales. November's results will offer the first hard indication on the strength of the 2018 holiday shopping season.

Relative Performance Index

Econoday's RPI provides a handy summary measure of how an economy has recently been evolving relative to market expectations.
A reading above zero means that the economy in general has been performing more strongly than expected and vice versa for a reading below zero. The closer is the value to the maximum (+100) or minimum (-100) levels, the greater is the degree to which markets have been under- or over-estimating economic activity. A zero outturn would imply that, on average, the market consensus has been correct. Note too that the index is sensitized to place extra weight upon those indicators that investors consider to be the most important.

 

Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. Of special attention is the control group; this is an input into the consumer spending component of GDP and excludes food services, autos, gasoline and building materials. Why Investors Care

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