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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 12/21/2018 10:00:00 AM For Nov, 2018
 PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M0.5 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.4 %0.2 %
Personal Consumption Expenditures - M/M0.6 %0.8 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.5 %0.4 %
PCE Price Index - M/M0.2 %0.1 %0.0 % to 0.1 %0.1 %
PCE Price Index - Y/Y2.0 %1.8 %1.8 % to 2.0 %1.8 %
Core PCE Price Index - M/M0.1 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.2 %0.1 %
Core PCE Price Index - Y/Y1.8 %1.9 %1.8 % to 1.9 %1.9 %
US 6-Mo ChartGlobal Current
performance relative to consensus

Consensus Outlook
Personal income is seen rising 0.3 percent in November while consumer spending, which has been strong, is expected to also increase 0.3 percent. The core PCE price index, which excludes both food and energy, is seen posting a 0.1 percent monthly rise for a year-on-year rate of 1.8 percent. The consensus for the overall PCE price index is 0.2 percent for a year-on-year rate of 1.9 percent.

Relative Performance Index

Econoday's RPI provides a handy summary measure of how an economy has recently been evolving relative to market expectations.
A reading above zero means that the economy in general has been performing more strongly than expected and vice versa for a reading below zero. The closer is the value to the maximum (+100) or minimum (-100) levels, the greater is the degree to which markets have been under- or over-estimating economic activity. A zero outturn would imply that, on average, the market consensus has been correct. Note too that the index is sensitized to place extra weight upon those indicators that investors consider to be the most important.

 

Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket. Why Investors Care

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