2018 Economic Calendar
2024 Econoday Investor's Journal Order Now
POWERED BY  econoday logo
U.S. & Intl Recaps   |   Event Definitions   |   Central Banks   |   Today's Calendar

GDP  
Released On 12/21/2018 8:30:00 AM For Q3(f):2018
 PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Quarter over Quarter - Annual Rate3.5 %3.5 %3.3 % to 3.6 %3.4 %
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Annual Rate3.6 %3.6 %3.5 % to 3.6 %3.5 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR1.7 %1.7 %1.7 % to 1.7 %1.8 %
US 6-Mo ChartGlobal Current
performance relative to consensus

Consensus Outlook
The third estimate for third-quarter GDP is expected to come in at the 3.5 percent rate of both the first and second estimates. Consumer spending is expected to hold at 3.6 percent of the second estimate. A favorable inventory build was a major positive in the third quarter with residential investment and especially net exports both weaknesses. The GDP price index is seen unchanged at 1.7 percent.

Relative Performance Index

Econoday's RPI provides a handy summary measure of how an economy has recently been evolving relative to market expectations.
A reading above zero means that the economy in general has been performing more strongly than expected and vice versa for a reading below zero. The closer is the value to the maximum (+100) or minimum (-100) levels, the greater is the degree to which markets have been under- or over-estimating economic activity. A zero outturn would imply that, on average, the market consensus has been correct. Note too that the index is sensitized to place extra weight upon those indicators that investors consider to be the most important.

 

Definition
Gross Domestic Product represents the total value of the country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically-produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and government entities. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, as well as in index form. Economists and market players always monitor the real growth rates generated by the GDP quantity index or the real dollar value. The quantity index measures inflation-adjusted activity, but we are more accustomed to looking at dollar values.

Household purchases are counted in personal consumption expenditures -- durable goods (such as furniture and cars), nondurable goods (such as clothing and food) and services (such as banking, education and transportation). Private housing purchases are classified as residential investment. Businesses invest in nonresidential structures, durable equipment and computer software. Inventories at all stages of production are counted as investment. Only inventory changes, not levels, are added to GDP.

Net exports equal the sum of exports less imports. Exports are the purchases by foreigners of goods and services produced in the United States. Imports represent domestic purchases of foreign-produced goods and services and must be deducted from the calculation of GDP. Government purchases of goods and services are the compensation of government employees and purchases from businesses and abroad. Data show the portion attributed to consumption and investment. Government outlays for transfer payments or interest payments are not included in GDP.

The GDP price index is a comprehensive indicator of inflation. It is typically lower than the consumer price index because investment goods (which are in the GDP price index but not the CPI) tend to have lower rates of inflation than consumer goods and services. Note that contributions of each component, as averaged over the prior year, are tracked in the table below (components do not exactly sum to total due to chain-weighted methodology). Consumption expenditures, otherwise known as consumer spending, has over history been steadily making up an increasing share of GDP. Why Investors Care

[locked]