2018 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 12/7/2018 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2018
 PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M250,000 237,000 190,000 150,000  to 220,000 155,000 
Unemployment Rate3.7 %3.7 %3.6 % to 3.8 %3.7 %
Private Payrolls - M/M246,000 251,000 183,000 150,000  to 215,000 161,000 
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M32,000 26,000 16,000 -6,000  to 25,000 27,000 
Participation Rate62.9 %62.8 %62.8 % to 63.0 %62.9 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M0.2 %0.1 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.4 %0.2 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y3.1 %3.2 %3.1 % to 3.3 %3.1 %
Average Workweek34.5 hrs34.5 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.4 hrs
US 6-Mo ChartGlobal Current
performance relative to consensus

Consensus Outlook
A 190,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls is Econoday's consensus for the November employment report with the unemployment rate seen holding at a 49-year low of 3.7 percent. Average hourly earnings, after a subdued monthly showing in October, are expected to rise a solid 0.3 percent with the year-on-year rate expected to climb 1 tenth to a new expansion high of 3.2 percent. Private payrolls are seen rising 183,000 with manufacturing payrolls expected to increase a solid 16,000 on top of October's 32,000 surge. The workweek is seen unchanged at 34.5 hours with the labor participation rate seen slipping to 62.8 percent vs 62.9 percent in October.

Relative Performance Index

Econoday's RPI provides a handy summary measure of how an economy has recently been evolving relative to market expectations.
A reading above zero means that the economy in general has been performing more strongly than expected and vice versa for a reading below zero. The closer is the value to the maximum (+100) or minimum (-100) levels, the greater is the degree to which markets have been under- or over-estimating economic activity. A zero outturn would imply that, on average, the market consensus has been correct. Note too that the index is sensitized to place extra weight upon those indicators that investors consider to be the most important.

 

Definition
The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers. Why Investors Care

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