Consensus Outlook
Bounce back strength is the expectation for November durable goods orders where the consensus is calling for a 1.4 percent gain vs October's drop of 4.3 percent (revised from an initial 4.4 percent). Ex-transportation orders are expected to improve to a 0.3 percent increase vs a 0.2 percent increase in October (revised from an initial 0.1 percent). Capital goods orders have been weak, coming in unchanged in October after two prior declines. Expectations for core capital goods (nondefense ex-air) are calling for a moderate November rebound to a 0.3 percent gain.
Relative Performance Index
Econoday's RPI provides a handy summary measure of how an economy has recently been evolving relative to market expectations.
A reading above zero means that the economy in general has been performing more strongly than expected and vice versa for a reading below zero. The closer is the value to the maximum (+100) or minimum (-100) levels, the greater is the degree to which markets have been under- or over-estimating economic activity.
A zero outturn would imply that, on average, the market consensus has been correct. Note too that the index is sensitized to place extra weight upon those indicators that investors consider to be the most important.
Definition
Durable goods orders are new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory hard goods. The report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. The advance release provides early estimates and is revised about a week later by the factory orders report. Why Investors Care