Consensus Outlook
Initial jobless claims dropped suddenly back to historic lows in the December 8 week, down 27,000 to 206,000 which sets up expectations for a bounce higher in the December 15 week to a consensus 220,000. The December 15 week will track the mid-month sample period of the monthly employment report and will offer key hints on what to expect for payroll growth and the unemployment rate in December.
Relative Performance Index
Econoday's RPI provides a handy summary measure of how an economy has recently been evolving relative to market expectations.
A reading above zero means that the economy in general has been performing more strongly than expected and vice versa for a reading below zero. The closer is the value to the maximum (+100) or minimum (-100) levels, the greater is the degree to which markets have been under- or over-estimating economic activity.
A zero outturn would imply that, on average, the market consensus has been correct. Note too that the index is sensitized to place extra weight upon those indicators that investors consider to be the most important.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care