Consensus Outlook
Despite only a marginal rise in unit sales during October, the motor vehicle component in the month's retail sales report proved very strong. For November unit sales, forecasters see a 17.2 million annualized rate vs October's 17.5 million in what would signal retail weakness for motor vehicles.
Relative Performance Index
Econoday's RPI provides a handy summary measure of how an economy has recently been evolving relative to market expectations.
A reading above zero means that the economy in general has been performing more strongly than expected and vice versa for a reading below zero. The closer is the value to the maximum (+100) or minimum (-100) levels, the greater is the degree to which markets have been under- or over-estimating economic activity.
A zero outturn would imply that, on average, the market consensus has been correct. Note too that the index is sensitized to place extra weight upon those indicators that investors consider to be the most important.
Definition
Unit sales of motor vehicles, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the beginning of each month, include domestic sales and imports. Domestics are sales of autos produced in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Imports are U.S. sales of vehicles produced elsewhere. The data track all passenger cars and light trucks up to 14,000 pounds gross weight (including minivans and sport utility vehicles). Though totals include a relatively small portion sold to businesses, motor vehicle sales are good indicators of trends in consumer spending and often are considered a leading indicator at business cycle turning points. Why Investors Care