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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 12/6/2018 10:00:00 AM For Nov, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level60.3 59.0 57.0  to 60.1 60.7 

Highlights
ISM non-manufacturing sample continues to report robust rates of growth, at a composite score of 60.7 in November that beats Econoday's high estimate and marks the third 60 showing in a row. This index has now beaten the consensus for four months in a row.

New orders rose 1 point in November to 62.5 with export orders slowing but still very strong at 57.5. Backlog orders are up 2 points to a very solid 55.5 in strength that points to the need for new staff, and this sample has in fact been hiring, at a very strong 58.4 for employment though down 1.3 points from October.

Cost pressures remain elevated and supplier deliveries remain stretched, both signs of supply-side capacity stress. Agriculture is the only one of 18 industries not reporting composite growth in the month, which underscores tariff issues and ongoing export weakness for farming as seen in this morning's trade report for October.

But the message from this report is very strong and together with the services PMI released earlier this morning point to a very strong pace of growth for the bulk of the economy going into year end.

Consensus Outlook
A steady and robust rate of growth is the call for ISM's non-manufacturing index for November, at a consensus 59.0 vs 60.3 in October that followed September's record 61.6. This indicator has beaten Econoday's consensus for the last three reports. New orders and new export orders were October's greatest strengths.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing index is an equally weighted composite of four separate components: business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. The report tracks 17 industries, 15 of which are from the services sector as well as mining and construction.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/53/54/45/36/57/58/39/610/311/512/6
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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