2018 Economic Calendar
2019 Econoday Investor's Journal Buy Now
POWERED BY  econoday logo
U.S. & Intl Recaps   |   Event Definitions   |   Today's Calendar   |   

Employment Situation  
Released On 12/7/2018 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change250,000 237,000 190,000 150,000  to 220,000 155,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level3.7 %3.7 %3.6 % to 3.8 %3.7 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change246,000 251,000 183,000 150,000  to 215,000 161,000 
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change32,000 26,000 16,000 -6,000  to 25,000 27,000 
Participation Rate - level62.9 %62.8 %62.8 % to 63.0 %62.9 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.2 %0.1 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.4 %0.2 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change3.1 %3.2 %3.1 % to 3.3 %3.1 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.5 hrs34.5 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.4 hrs

Highlights
Sustainable non-inflationary strength is the indication from the November employment report as payroll growth proved favorable and moderate and wage pressures modest. Nonfarm payrolls rose 155,000 which is on the low side of expectations while average hourly earnings increased 0.2 percent, also on the low side of expectations. The year-on-year rate for earnings held unchanged at 3.1 percent, again on the low side of expectations.

The unemployment rate, at 3.7 percent, is also unchanged as is the labor participation rate at 62.9 percent, both matching Econoday's consensus. A sign of moderation comes from average weekly hours which, at 34.4, is at the low end of expectations to hint at easing capacity stress. Manufacturing hours and overtime are soft which points to moderate results for the upcoming industrial production report.

Turning back to payrolls, manufacturing rose a very solid 27,000 in the only reading in today's report that tops Econoday's consensus. Trade & transportation, where capacity stress has been elevated, added a very strong 53,000 jobs with professional & business services up 32,000 which is solid but still low for this reading to suggest that the scramble to find full-time employees may be easing.

This report does not raise any urgency for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy and may well raise talk of fewer rate hikes to come in 2019.

Consensus Outlook
A 190,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls is Econoday's consensus for the November employment report with the unemployment rate seen holding at a 49-year low of 3.7 percent. Average hourly earnings, after a subdued monthly showing in October, are expected to rise a solid 0.3 percent with the year-on-year rate expected to climb 1 tenth to a new expansion high of 3.2 percent. Private payrolls are seen rising 183,000 with manufacturing payrolls expected to increase a solid 16,000 on top of October's 32,000 surge. The workweek is seen unchanged at 34.5 hours with the labor participation rate seen slipping to 62.8 percent vs 62.9 percent in October.

Definition
The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payroll gains of 150,000 or so are considered healthy. Heading into recession, payroll gains begin to move below 100,000 and then, in confirmation of recession, into outright contraction. Coming out of recession, payroll gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The unemployment rate measures those who have a job relative to those who are actively looking for a job. During recessions, those actively looking may grow discouraged, dropping out of the workforce and, in a counter- intuitive twist, putting downward pressure on the unemployment rate. During times of economic strength, workforce dropouts may regain their confidence and begin actively looking for a job once again which puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/23/94/65/46/17/68/39/710/511/212/7
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


powered by  [Econoday]