Econoday Economic Report: Employment Situation November 2, 2018

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Employment Situation

Released On 11/2/2018 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2018

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M	134,000	118,000	190,000	150,000 to 231,000	250,000
Unemployment Rate	3.7 %		3.7 %	3.6 % to 3.8 %	3.7 %
Private Payrolls - M/M	121,000		181,000	160,000 to 205,000	246,000
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M	18,000		13,000	0 to 22,000	32,000
Participation Rate	62.7 %		62.8 %	62.6 % to 62.8 %	62.9 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M	0.3 %		0.2 %	0.1 % to 0.4 %	0.2 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y	2.8 %		3.0 %	2.8 % to 3.2 %	3.1 %
Average Workweek	34.5 hrs		34.5 hrs	34.5 hrs to 34.5 hrs	34.5 hrs

Consensus Outlook
A 190,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls is Econoday's consensus for the October employment report with the unemployment rate seen holding at September's 49-year low of 3.7 percent. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise a modest 0.2 percent on the month with, however, the year-on-year rate expected to rise 2 tenths to 3.0 percent. Private payrolls are seen rising 181,000 with manufacturing payrolls expected to increase a solid 13,000. The workweek is seen unchanged at 34.5 hours with the labor participation rate up 1 tenth to 62.8 percent.

Definition
The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers. Why Investors Care

2018 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/5 2/2 3/9 4/6 5/4 6/1 7/6 8/3 9/7 10/5 11/2 12/7

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